Elections 2021

Four states and a union territory had elections in March and April and counting of votes was on 2/5/2021.  In Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry voting was on 6/4/2021.  Assam had 3-phase election.  Voting was on 27/3/2021, 1/4/2021 and 6/4/2021.  West Bengal had 8-phase election.   Voting was on 27/3/2021, 1/4/2021, 6/4/2021, 10/4/2021, 17/4/2021, 22/4/2021, 26/4/2021 and 29/4/2021.  By 6/4/2021 Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry had finished their voting and they had to wait till 2/5/2021 to know the results. There was criticism of Election Commission that this was done to suit BJP.  Stretching out elections to 8 or several phases and clubbing together elections of different states and make some wait for a month or so for results is megalomania which started under T. N. Seshan and continues. 

West Bengal was the state which BJP wanted to win at all costs and by all means.  Many TMC MLAs were welcomed into BJP and given tickets.  This made many BJP aspirants angry.  Their anger was out in the open.  BJP stopped recruiting TMC members.  Lot of damage was already done.  Most MLAs who switched from TMC to BJP lost.  Prominent BJP candidates like Babul Supriyo and Swapan Dasgupta lost.

Nandigram saw lead changing between Suvendu Adhikari and Mamata Banerjee.  In the evening reports came that Mamata Banerjee had won by 1,200 votes.  Later EC declared Suvendu Adhikari had won.  As per EC web site Suvendu Adhikari got 1,10,764 votes, and Mamata Banerjee got 1,08,808, a difference of 1,956 votes. Mamata Banerjee wanted recount.  EC did not agree.  Mamata Banerjee could have continued to contest from Bhabanipur constituency.  She could have said she will contest election as per her plan and not BJP’s plan.  Mamata Banerjee will likely challenge the result in court.    

Narendra Modi led the campaign for BJP in West Bengal.  He was happy with the crowds.  Crowds are no guarantee of votes.  He should have known that.  Fight between BJP and TMC was bitter.  Mamata Banerjee was injured.  She campaigned on wheelchair. 

Corona was spreading.  Rahul Gandhi said he will not hold rallies.  BJP mocked him saying he knows he is losing.  EC did not agree to ban rallies.  It restricted the number to 500.  Criticism of rallies as superspreaders was mounting.  Modi said he will not hold rallies.  After that EC banned rallies.

Elections for three Rajya Sabha seats from Kerala was due in April.  EC had announced the schedule.  Law Ministry of India suggested postponing of elections voting would have taken place on 6/4/2021 but counting takes place on 2/5/2021 and hence it will not reflect the will of the people.  CPI(M) did not like that.  The matter went to Supreme Court which ordered holding elections.  Election schedule was announced.  On 23/4/2021 three candidates were elected unopposed.

West Bengal has 294 seats.  Voting was for 292 seats.  TMC won 213, BJP 77, Independent 1, RSMP 1.  Congress did not win any seat.  CPI(M) which was the dominant party of Left Front which ruled West Bengal for 34 years did not win any seat.  At one time Mamata Banerjee wanted an alliance of BJP, Congress and TMC to defeat Left Front.  That did not take place.  Today Congress and CPI(M) are out of West Bengal Legislative Assembly.  In December 2020 Prashant Kishor had predicted that BJP will not cross two digits.  That proved right.  Exit polls that predicted hung house in West Bengal proved wrong.

Assam has 126 seats.  BJP won 60, Congress 29, AIUDF 16, AGP 9, UPPL 6, BPF 4, CPI(M) 1, Independent 1.  AGP and UPPL and BJP’s allies.  BJP and allies are set to form government.

Tamil Nadu has 234 seats.  DMK won 133, AIADMK 66, Congress 18, BJP 4.  Remaining seats went to other parties.  Kamal Haasan and TTV Dhinakaran lost.  Congress is DMK ally.  BJP is AIADMK ally.

Kerala has 140 seats.  LDF’s CPI(M) won 62 seats, CPI 17.  UDF’s Congress won 21, IUML 15.  Other parties belonging to these two Fronts and Independents have remaining seats.  Kerala used to change the ruling alliance every five years.  This time LDF has retained power.  BJP did not win any seat.

Puducherry has 30 seats, AINRC won 10, BJP 6, DMK 6, Independent 6, Congress 2.  AINRC and BJP are allies.

Results are mixed for BJP, Congress and Left Front.  BJP leads the ruling alliance in Assam, part of ruling alliance in Puducherry, got 77 seats in West Bengal and 4 seats in Tamil Nadu.  No seats in Kerala. 

Congress is part of ruling alliance in Tamil Nadu, has seats in Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry and no seats in West Bengal. 

Left Front rules Kerala, has some seats in Assam and Tamil Nadu, and no seats in West Bengal and Puducherry.

It is a blow for Modi who could not win West Bengal.