Month: October 2014

BJP wins in Haryana and Maharashtra

BJP won in Legislative Assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra.  In Haryana it was clear victory as BJP won in 47 seats out of 90.  In Maharashtra BJP emerged as the single largest party winning 123 seats out of 288.  NCP which has 41 seats declared unconditional outside support to BJP.

During by-elections that followed Lok Sabha elections BJP had done badly.  It had lost seats it had previously held.  These victories are a morale booster to BJP.

For Lok Sabha elections News24-Chanakya prediction was close.  This time India TV-C Voter was close for Haryana and India Today-Cicero was close for Maharashtra.  India TV-C Voter predicted BJP 45, INLD 23, Congress 15.  It was BJP 47, INLD 20, Congress 15.  India Today-Cicero predicted BJP 124. SS 71, Congress 35, NCP 29.  It was BJP 123, SS 63, Congress 42, NCP 41.

In Haryana BJP has come to power on its own for the first time.  Previously it was a junior partner in coalitions.  Families of Bansi Lal, Bhajan Lal and Devi Lal had dominated Haryana politics.  Then came Bhupinder Singh Hooda.  He promoted his family.  INLD dominated by Devi Lal’s descendants is second with 20 seats.  Congress is third with 15 seats.  HJC headed by Bhajan Lal’s son Kuldeep Bishnoi got two seats.  Kuldeep and his wife won the two seats.  Sushma Swaraj’s sister Vandana Sharma lost.  Many BJP members were opposed to Vandana Sharma’s candidature as they viewed it as dynasty nomination.

In Maharashtra BJP won 123, Shiv Sena 63, Congress 42, NCP 41.  MNS was reduced to one seat.  MIM won two seats, first time outside Hyderabad.  BJP’s allies Swabhimani Paksha, RPI (A), Rashtriya Samaj Paksha and Shiv Sangram contested 27 seats and lost in 26. RSP won the lone seat.  SP got one seat.  Six independents won.  Breaking the alliance with Shiv Sena proved beneficial to BJP.  Since NCP has declared support to BJP there is not much Shiv Sena can bargain for.  Amit Shah said chief minister will be of BJP.  BJP has seats almost double to that of Shiv Sena.  Shiv Sena needs BJP more than BJP needs Shiv Sena.  Shiv Sena is in no position to dominate BJP and dictate terms to it.

Amit Shah said they are two steps closer to Congress-Free India.  In both states Congress has come third.  He made it clear it will be BJP chief minister in Maharashtra.  No chance for Uddhav Thackeray to become CM.

It is wrong to speak of 10 years of anti-incumbency in Haryana and 15 years of anti-incumbency in Maharashtra.  Elections are held every five years.  When a party in power wins an election there is no anti-incumbency for the preceding period.  If at all there is anti-incumbency it is of five years.  It is not anti-incumbency that causes defeat but failure to perform as per expectations.  Corruption, misrule, nepotism are some of the reasons why parties lose elections.

Modi did not campaign during by-elections.  He campaigned during Legislative Assembly elections.  That made a difference to BJP.  In both states BJP did not have chief ministerial candidates.

AAP did not contest elections.  Being Delhi-centric is not good for AAP.  In Maharashtra many have left AAP.

Was there any secret understanding between BJP and NCP?  Does Modi want to make Sharad Pawar defence minister?  Is that the reason why Arun Jaitley holds additional charge of defence minister?  It will be political suicide for Modi if he makes Sharad Pawar defence minister.

Modi spoke against dynastic rule.  There are dynasties in BJP.  Modi’s message was to all dynasties.

Whether there was Modi wave in Maharashtra is immaterial.  BJP emerged as the largest party.  It has NCP’s outside support.  It is in a position to form the government.  That is what matters.

India and ISIS

Don’t trouble trouble unless trouble troubles you.

ISIS is no danger to India.  Joining USA’s Coalition of the willing in fight against ISIS is of no benefit to India. It can damage India.

First of all there are Indian hostages in ISIS territory.  If India joins the fight ISIS can behead Indians one by one.  The outrage and uproar that will cause in India will be uncontrollable.  India was able to get nurses released from territory but failed to get construction labourers released.  How did that happen?  Was there any secret understanding that ISIS can keep construction labourers in release for nurses?

ISIS is neither an existential nor an immediate nor a clear nor a present danger to India.  ISIS was the creation of USA and its allies who wanted to pull down Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.  As long as ISIS operated in Syria, USA and its allies had no problem.  When ISIS expanded into Iraq and conquered some villages and small cities USA and its allies had no problem.  The problem started when ISIS conquered Mosul and Tikrit and other territories and driving out Christians, Yezidis and Shias.  USA was alarmed.  It started bombing ISIS areas in Iraq.  ISIS beheaded two Americans.  Then USA with Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Qatar bombed ISIS areas in Syria.  Cruise missiles were used.  Drones could have sufficed.  Perhaps USA wants to give business to cruise missile makers.  Oil refineries were destroyed.  That will give business to American contractors.

Barack Obama does not want to put boots on the ground.  War is unpopular with Americans.  Air strikes are generally safe.

There are some who twist facts to justify India joining fight against ISIS.  Someone said ISIS is already in India.  Lashkar- e- Toiba and Indian Mujahudden are ISIS.  That is wrong.   Lashkar- e- Toiba and Indian Mujahudden existed before ISIS.

Another argument is that all Indians working in Gulf countries are hostages.  That is ridiculous.  There is no danger to Indian workers in Gulf countries from ISIS.  ISIS is in no position to attack Gulf countries, leave alone conquer them.

Barack Obama said we underestimated ISIS.  Then some said we had told about dangers from ISIS to Congressional Committee.  Then Obama said we overestimated Iraq’s capacity to withstand ISIS.

Someone said Iraqi Generals were bribed by Gulf countries to let ISIS win.  Those Generals are enjoying life outside Iraq with the money they got.

After one person jumped the fence of White House there is question of Secret Service’s ability to secure White House.  He cleared five security rings.  The front door was unlocked.  He reached East Room.  Congressional Committee grilled Secret Service Director Julia Pierson on security lapses.

USA has no problem with the dictatorship in Egypt.  Egypt’s experiment with democracy was short-lived.  It is a mess in Libya.

There is report that support for ISIS is growing in Jordan.  ISIS has support in Turkey and Egypt.  For Egypt’s government Muslim Brotherhood is a problem.  ISIS is recruiting teens through social media.

India should not join fight against ISIS.  Let those who created ISIS deal with it.